Predicting an outcome is a sought-after skill among many industries, none less than the Internet industry and all those that rely on the Internet to stay on and function as expected reliably.
The quality of any prediction is reliant on the number of variables that can impact the outcome. A coin toss is relatively easy to predict as a coin has two sides on which it can land. Therefore, there is a 50% chance it will land on your predicted side. Unfortunately, predicting Internet shutdowns and outages isn’t as sure as many more variables need to be accounted for, including one of the hardest things to predict — human decisions.
Excluding human influences, we can use more easily measurable factors when assessing a country’s Internet shutdown risk. For example, the Pulse NetLoss calculator estimates a country’s Internet shutdown risk by considering current socioeconomic and historical data on protests, civil unrest, elections, and Internet shutdown events.
Based on this set of metrics, Myanmar has the highest Internet shutdown risk (100%), according to the Pulse NetLoss calculator, followed by India (16.28%) and Afghanistan (11.34%). In contrast, the Netherlands, Panama, and South Korea have close to 0% shutdown risk.
Another factor we are looking at helping with this prediction is a country’s Internet resilience.
Nearly Three Out of Four Countries with Low Internet Resilience Have a Higher Chance of Internet Shutdowns
The Pulse Internet Resilience Index (IRI) collates more than 25 different metrics associated with a country’s Internet infrastructure, connectivity, security, and market readiness to assess and rank its robustness compared to more than 170 other countries.
When plotting the IRI score for each of these countries against its Internet risk score (see interactive below), 24 of the 34 countries (71%) with an Internet shutdown risk greater than 6% have an IRI score lower than 40%!
Figure 1 — Hover over the dots to reveal the country details.
This is a similar percentage of countries (73%, not including Comoros) that have experienced/continue to experience an Internet shutdown in 2024 (Table 1).
| Country | Number of Internet Shutdowns in 2024 | Shutdown Risk | GDP Loss per day (USD) | Internet Resilience Index Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | 5 | 3.03% | 1,783,563 | 37% |
| Chad | 1 | 7.38% | 89,558 | 24% |
| Comoros | 1 | 4.27% | 9,701 | No data |
| Cuba | 1 | 4.72% | No data | 27% |
| Ethiopia | 2* | 10.72% | 1,020,091 | 27% |
| India | 12* | 16.28% | 33,931,985 | 43% |
| Iraq | 22 | 8.22% | 1,426,822 | 38% |
| Iran | 1* | 3.54% | 4,824,506 | 32% |
| Mauritania | 1 | 3.17% | 89,574 | 26% |
| Myanmar | 1* | 100% | 793,370 | 45% |
| Pakistan | 3 | 4.04% | 4,427,597 | 35% |
| Palestine | 1 | 1.71% | 101,588 | 47% |
| Russia | 1* | 0.31% | 15,956,395 | 55% |
| Senegal | 2 | 4.16% | 215,728 | 38% |
| Sudan | 1 | 5.64% | 617,956 | 28% |
| Syrian Arab Republic | 16 | 9.39% | No data | 20% |
* Denotes countries that have ongoing shutdowns that began before 2024. Source: Pulse Shutdown Tracker.
Watch and read Anirudh Tagat’s recent presentation and paper on how we calculate Internet Shutdown risk and economic affects via Pulse NetLoss.
Predicting Shutdowns During Elections
Of the 71 shutdown and service-blocking events recorded this year, four have been attributed to elections, and another has been related to protests following an election.
With at least 48 more elections planned across 38 countries for the rest of 2024, five of these countries — Algeria, Chad, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, and Venezuela — have IRI scores lower than 40% and Internet Shutdown Risks greater than 6%.
Although artificial Internet limitations, including Internet shutdowns, ultimately result from human decisions that are hard to predict, there is a correlation between Internet resilience and the risk of Internet shutdowns.
Having a more resilient Internet indicates higher reliability and trust in the network, all of which are attractive to local and foreign customers and investors.
The Internet Society has long opposed Internet shutdowns and urges all governments to refrain from implementing them due to the damage they inflict on a nation’s economy, civil society, and Internet infrastructure. Join the #KeepItOn campaign and advocate against Internet shutdowns.